Drawing on HRA’s Workforce Crisis research and recent conversations with Lightcast economists Ron Hetrick and Josh Wright, this session gives commercial trades leaders a clear-eyed look at why the labor shortage is structural — not a passing cycle — and a practical, data-driven playbook for competing and winning in a market reshaped by demographics, immigration, and rising costs.

What attendees will learn:

•     Why the shortage is permanent, not cyclical — the demographic math owners can no longer wait out

•     How the changed national landscape — immigration enforcement, cost and wage pressure — has accelerated the crisis for commercial trades specifically

•     How to compete for labor when megaprojects and data centers are bidding wages up next door

•     Why “recruiting is a marketing function,” and how to use labor data and modern outreach to win candidates instead of just outspending rivals

•     How to build your own talent pipeline — and keep it — instead of renting workers in a free-agent market

•     A concrete 90-day action plan owners can put to work immediately

Outline:

•     1. The New Reality. What’s changed since last year — demographics, immigration, and cost pressure — and why commercial trades feel it first.

•     2. The Math That Doesn’t Reset. The structural shortage in plain terms: fewer workers entering, more leaving, and a training pipeline that can’t keep up.

•     3. The Commercial Squeeze. Immigration exposure, subcontractor risk, and competing against premium-paying megaprojects for the same crews.

•     4. Recruiting as Marketing. Turning labor data into a message and a strategy that attracts talent — the HRA approach.

•     5. Build, Don’t Rent. Apprenticeships and pipelines that produce loyal hires, plus the retention moves that keep your best people.

•     6. The 90-Day Action Plan. The highest-leverage steps an owner can start Monday — no enterprise budget required.